A historic El Niño is coming. Here's what the last ones did up here.

NOAA gives this winter a 75% chance of the strongest El Niño on record. Every strong one so far buried the White Mountains.

LiveShowLow · Show Low & Pinetop-Lakeside · Oct 3, 2026 · Illustration image

On September 10, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put an El Niño Advisory in effect and gave fall and winter 2026–27 a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event. For October through December it puts the odds of a historic El Niño, stronger than any since 1950, at 75%. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO discussion, Sept 10 2026

What strong El Niño winters have meant for us

The last three strong El Niños peaked in the winters of 1998, 2010 and 2016. NOAA's storm records log heavy snow in the White Mountains zone in every one of them. NOAA CPC Oceanic Nino Index NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database

• January 2010: 40 to 60 inches of snow fell on the White Mountains in three days. Greer got 50 inches, Alpine 48. NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database
• The weight brought down the roof of Pinetop-Lakeside Fire Station No. 2, and the eastern Rim and White Mountains lost power for days. NWS Flagstaff, 2010 Historic Winter Storm
• It got worse because snow turned to rain for hours around 7,000 feet, soaking into the snowpack and making it heavier. NWS Flagstaff, 2010 Historic Winter Storm

Strong El Niño winters tend to run wetter in northern Arizona, but every storm is different and nobody can promise what this one brings. NWS Flagstaff, El Nino and La Nina in northern Arizona

Before the first big storm

• Get the roof looked at: missing or lifted shingles, flashing, and any sag.
• Clear gutters and downspouts so meltwater has somewhere to go.
• Know where your shovel, roof rake and generator are before you need them.